Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.484868 2.645926 2.817362 3.014335 3.235546 3.477672 3.764624
2025-03-30 2.227628 2.442481 2.683070 2.975486 3.325586 3.737073 4.266391
2025-04-06 2.055250 2.297222 2.577518 2.931753 3.375961 3.927041 4.684150
2025-04-13 1.908578 2.162483 2.463825 2.855742 3.364746 4.023584 4.979054
2025-04-20 1.839020 2.111454 2.442606 2.885910 3.482903 4.291439 5.536853
2025-04-27 1.791863 2.082383 2.443400 2.940033 3.632745 4.614457 6.225254
2025-05-04 1.749383 2.054939 2.442205 2.988347 3.775522 4.941041 6.979632
2025-05-11 1.684114 1.993649 2.391630 2.963289 3.807911 5.101748 7.485043
2025-05-18 1.627525 1.940211 2.347531 2.942607 3.842520 5.266891 8.029866
2025-05-25 1.574519 1.888598 2.302478 2.916360 3.864515 5.411492 8.565460
2025-06-01 1.525631 1.840064 2.258734 2.888330 3.879892 5.544661 9.107946
2025-06-08 1.490332 1.808135 2.236053 2.889283 3.940464 5.763323 9.894138
2025-06-15 1.466759 1.791765 2.235128 2.924028 4.061654 6.114579 11.122498
2025-06-22 1.422001 1.744375 2.187684 2.884113 4.053064 6.217400 11.765961
2025-06-29 1.379778 1.698927 2.140966 2.842336 4.037255 6.303193 12.397071
2025-07-06 1.331416 1.643280 2.077212 2.770117 3.962039 6.257988 12.635240
2025-07-13 1.314542 1.631342 2.076821 2.798777 4.069117 6.609735 14.258642
2025-07-20 1.304844 1.629040 2.090260 2.850171 4.222106 7.088880 16.631034
2025-07-27 1.294097 1.624695 2.100192 2.896021 4.368976 7.584489 19.507311
2025-08-03 1.266320 1.594723 2.069926 2.872244 4.378213 7.750096 21.112589
2025-08-10 1.241011 1.567592 2.042981 2.852614 4.393870 7.935152 23.007284
2025-08-17 1.215682 1.539710 2.013876 2.827695 4.396666 8.087914 24.915234
2025-08-24 1.191147 1.512340 1.984642 2.801076 4.393781 8.225805 26.931141